Polls indicate, for example, that 60 percent of Americans, as well as many editorialists across the political spectrum, believe that the fighting in Lebanon could or might lead to a larger war in a manner similar to the onset of World War I, when the assassination of one high official and his consort escalated into a global war. ...
[T]here was at least one element in the lead-up to World War I that to my mind serves as a useful analogy in the Middle East imbroglio. In 1914, the status-quo government of Austria-Hungary foolishly decided, with the support of imperial aspirant Germany, to militarily punish Serbia for having supported the nationalist assassins of the Austrian archduke. Austria-Hungary cared little about the assassination compared to its larger purpose: by seizing upon the event to teach the Serbs a lesson, pan-Slavism might be contained and the old order preserved. In our day, the status-quo government of Israel, supported by hegemonic America, decided to punish Hamas and Hezbollah, and collaterally Lebanon—not for the kidnapping of a few soldiers but to teach them a lesson in military power and perhaps even to "root out" Hamas and Hezbollah. Both Austria-Hungary/Germany and Israel/United States chose military force over real diplomacy; that is, they chose the sword over a political solution to a deeply-rooted struggle between status-quo governments and the tide of nationalistic/religious/ideological rebellion.
No, I don't think that the current conflict in the Middle East will lead to a world war, though it might lead to a larger regional conflict. Even if no wider war comes about, we should nonetheless remember one of the lessons of the onset of World War I: explosive political issues cannot be solved with brute force in an age of "people's war," or weapon-rich guerrilla war. Political problems mainly require political solutions. Conventional military responses alone produce conventional failures.
Monday, July 31, 2006
Kimball: Historical Analogies, the Middle East, and World War
Kristof: Another Small Step for Earth
Nicholas Kristof in the NYT:
It’s true that the risks of climate change are uncertain, but when encountering other kinds of dangers — like Iran apparently trying to develop nuclear weapons — we don’t shrug and say there’s no point in doing anything because of the uncertainties. The risks of warming are potentially enormous — imagine much of the east coast under water — and our obligation to protect our planet is not just technical but also moral.
So it’s time to abandon the old self-defeating notion that curbing greenhouse gases is too costly to be effective. Portland and other localities are showing that there’s plenty we can do inexpensively, at least in the early phases — if we don’t mind rush-hour traffic smelling of French fries.
I almost didn’t write this column, because with the Middle East in flames it’s obvious that climate change is not the most important topic of the day. But it could be the most important issue of this century.
Modern Humans So Big And Robust That Their Ancestors Seem Unrecognizable
New research from around the world has begun to reveal a picture of humans today that is so different from what it was in the past that scientists say they are startled. Over the past 100 years, humans in the industrialized world have undergone a form of evolution that is unique among the 7,000 or so generations of humans before us.
read more | digg story
one of the most striking shifts in human existence — a change from small, relatively weak and sickly people to humans who are so big and robust that their ancestors seem almost unrecognizable.
New research from around the world has begun to reveal a picture of humans today that is so different from what it was in the past that scientists say they are startled. Over the past 100 years, says one researcher, Robert W. Fogel of the University of Chicago, humans in the industrialized world have undergone “a form of evolution that is unique not only to humankind, but unique among the 7,000 or so generations of humans who have ever inhabited the earth.”
The difference does not involve changes in genes, as far as is known, but changes in the human form. It shows up in several ways, from those that are well known and almost taken for granted, like greater heights and longer lives, to ones that are emerging only from comparisons of health records.
The biggest surprise emerging from the new studies is that many chronic ailments like heart disease, lung disease and arthritis are occurring an average of 10 to 25 years later than they used to. There is also less disability among older people today, according to a federal study that directly measures it. And that is not just because medical treatments like cataract surgery keep people functioning. Human bodies are simply not breaking down the way they did before.
Even the human mind seems improved. The average I.Q. has been increasing for decades, and at least one study found that a person’s chances of having dementia in old age appeared to have fallen in recent years.
The proposed reasons are as unexpected as the changes themselves. Improved medical care is only part of the explanation; studies suggest that the effects seem to have been set in motion by events early in life, even in the womb, that show up in middle and old age.
U.S. history provides insight into current Israeli situation
by Steve Carol, from the Jewish News Weekly:
As we witness much of the world decrying the “lack of proportionality” in Israel’s response to the unprovoked attack on its military personnel and civilians within the State of Israel, it would be important to recall a similar episode in United States history.
On March 6, 1916, a group of 360 Villistas (followers of Pancho Villa) crossed the international border between the United States and Mexico and attacked the town of Columbus, New Mexico. Their immediate goal was to obtain weapons from the nearby headquarters of the U.S. 13th Cavalry. Eighteen Americans were killed during the raid and additional nine were killed in pursuit of the attackers back to the border.
The raid was led by German agents directed by Luther Wertz, a key German operative in Mexico. Germany wanted to keep the United States out of World War I, which was then raging, and sought to divert U.S. attention from Europe to south of the border.
The unprovoked attack on the United States triggered demands for retaliation and punishment of the raiders. There was no talk of “proportional” response.
As a result, President Woodrow Wilson ordered General John J. “Blackjack” Pershing and 6,000 American troops on a “Punitive Expedition” into Mexico. The force crossed into Mexico some two weeks after the initial attack and would penetrate some 300 miles into Mexico. During its nine-month stay in Mexico, U.S. forces would clash with Villistas as well as with Mexican Federal troops.
The Villistas again attacked the United States on May 5, 1916, raiding Glen Springs and Borquilla, Texas. This prompted President Wilson to send an additional force of 8,000 troops into Mexico. On June 18 he called up the Texas, New Mexico and Arizona National Guard and sent 150,000 men to patrol the U.S. border. Wilson also placed an arms embargo on Mexico, which included food and even horses.
On June 24 there was a clash between U.S. and Mexican forces at Carrizal, with 84 U.S. soldiers being surrounded by superior Mexican forces. Over half escaped but 14 were killed and 24 U.S. servicemen were taken prisoner.
Wilson’s reaction was immediate. The next day he demanded the release of the captured soldiers, and to back up his demands he mobilized the entire U.S. National Guard and incorporated it into the regular army. He dispatched American warships to patrol and enforce a blockade on Mexican ports on both its east and west coasts. All the American prisoners were released five days later, on June 30. There was no talk of a “lack of proportionality.”
While U.S. forces did not catch Pancho Villa, they crippled his ability to strike at the United States and inflicted heavy casualties on his forces in Mexico.
The American force was withdrawn, unexpectedly, on Jan. 25, 1917, not because of any Mexican or international pressure, but rather because the U.S. had obtained information that Germany intended to resume unrestricted submarine warfare, a step that would bring the U.S. into World War I. Additionally, the U.S. had obtained proof, via the Zimmermann Telegram, that Germany was seeking an anti-U.S. alliance with both Mexico and Japan. Thus the U.S. force was withdrawn so as not to give Mexico additional cause for considering such an alliance.
Similarly, the world has witnessed agents of Iran and Syria instruct Hamas and Hezbollah to attack military positions within Israel. This came after the Nov. 14, 2005 Iran-Syria Strategic Accord, whereby Iran pledged, among other things, military support for Syria. ...
Sunday, July 30, 2006
Friedman: Wasting Its Future
Op-Ed by Thomas Friedman:
When will the Arab-Muslim world stop getting its “pride” from fighting Israel and start getting it from constructing a society that others would envy, an economy others would respect, and inventions and medical breakthroughs from which others would benefit?
There will be no new Middle East — not as long as the New Middle Easterners, like Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister, get gunned down; not as long as Old Middle Easterners, like Nasrallah, use all their wits and resources to start a new Arab-Israeli war rather than build a new Arab university; and not as long as Arab media and intellectuals refuse to speak out clearly against those who encourage their youth to embrace martyrdom with religious zeal rather than meld modernity with Arab culture.
Without that, we are wasting our time and the Arab world is wasting its future. It will forever be “on the eve of modernity.”
Thursday, July 27, 2006
Middle East: Al Qaeda takes a back seat
Al Qaeda's Sunni ideology regards Shiites as heretics, and it profoundly distrusts Shiite groups like Hezbollah. But now Hezbollah has taken the lead on the most incendiary issue for jihadis of all stripes: the fight against Israel. The rise of Hezbollah makes it all more likely that Al Qaeda will soon seek to reassert itself.
read more | digg story
Wednesday, July 26, 2006
Heat spell melts European records
from IHT:
With Paris, London and Berlin experiencing peak temperatures above those of Bangkok, Hong Kong and New Delhi, Europe's heat wave this summer already has headed for the record books.read more | digg story
The severe and prolonged heat has prompted the authorities across Europe to advise on everything from personal safety to power use.
A 1911 record for the highest July temperature in Britain was broken last week when the village of Wisley in Surrey hit 36.5 degrees Celsius (97.7 Fahrenheit). Mark Vance, an entertainer at Warwick Castle who wears a full suit of armor and was dubbed the man with the hottest job in Britain by The Daily Express, was photographed frying an egg on the breastplate of his outfit.
In the Netherlands, July will probably qualify as the hottest month since temperatures were first measured in 1706, the Dutch meteorological institute, KNMI, said Tuesday.
Many parts of Germany have hit the highest July temperatures since records began to be kept.
The French health minister, Xavier Bertrand, urged Tuesday that medical students and retired doctors volunteer for hospital work as more than half the country was placed under the second- highest level of heat-wave alert.
Most of the 40 heat-related deaths in Europe in the last two weeks were in France, recalling the 2003 heat wave in which 15,000 died.
"The temperatures have not been so high in France as they were in the first weeks of August 2003, but the heat wave has lasted much longer," said Bernard Strauss, head of forecasting for Météo France.
"In the last six weeks we have had one of the longest stretches of higher than normal temperatures since we started records."
An Electoral College alternative
from the San Francisco Chronicle:
A Stanford University computer science professor has come up with an idea to circumvent the more than 200-year-old Electoral College system and institute a national popular vote to elect the president of the United States.read more | digg story
The proposal by John Koza, who also invented the scratch-off lottery ticket, is receiving serious consideration by lawmakers in several states. Legislators in California, New York, Colorado, Illinois and Missouri have sponsored bills to enact such a plan.
Koza's scheme calls for an interstate compact that would require states to throw all of their electoral votes behind the winner of the national popular vote, regardless of which candidate wins in each state. The plan doesn't require all 50 states to join, but a combination of states that represent a majority (at least 270) of the electoral votes. If the largest states join in the agreement, only 11 would be needed.
Should we worry about soya in our food?
Whether you know it or not, you'll probably be eating soya today. It's in 60% of all processed food, from cheese to ice cream, baby formula to biscuits. But should it carry a health warning?
read more | digg story
Tuesday, July 25, 2006
Is Israel now the lesser enemy between some Muslims?
an Op-Ed from Lebanon's Daily Star
Is the Sunni-Shiite divide in the Middle East now deeper than the antagonism between Israel and the Arabs? You might think so given the response of some Arab governments to Hizbullah's decision to attack Israel. Even as Israeli bombs fell on Beirut and Tyre, Saudi Arabia, perhaps the most conservative Arab Muslim state of all, openly condemned the actions of the Hizbullah in instigating conflict with Israel. Never before in the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict has a state that considers itself a leader of the Arab Muslim peoples come down on Israel's side so openly.read more | digg story
Moreover, Saudi Arabia's breach with Hizbullah is not a one-time occurrence. Egypt and Jordan have also roundly condemned Hizbullah and its leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, for their adventurism.
What is behind this stunning development? Are we seeing a fundamental shift in relations between Arab nationalism and Islamic sectarianism? Is Saudi Arabia's Sunni government more concerned and frightened by Shiite Islam than it is committed to Arab unity and the Palestinian cause?
Arab denunciations of Hizbullah suggest that the Muslim sectarian divide, already evident in the daily violence in Iraq, is deepening and intensifying across the Middle East. President George W. Bush's desire to shatter the Arab world's frozen societies was meant to pit the forces of modernization against the traditional elements in Arab and Islamic societies. Instead, he appears to have unleashed the region's most atavistic forces. Opening this Pandora's Box may have ushered in a new and even uglier era of generalized violence - what can only be called a "Muslim civil war." ...
Multilateral Intervention in the Middle East: An Uninspiring Legacy
Efforts to stabilize and pacify the Middle East conflict with UN and multinational peacekeeping forces have proven difficult--if not impossible. This is a look at the history of such efforts.
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Monday, July 24, 2006
Saving the World, One Video Game at a Time
"LAST week, in an effort to solve the Israeli-Palestinian crisis, I withdrew settlements in the Gaza Strip. But then a suicide bomber struck in Jerusalem. Desperate to retain control, I launched a missile strike against Hamas militants. I was playing Peacemaker, a video game in which you play the Israelis or the Palestinians."
read more | digg story
Saturday, July 22, 2006
Assassinations: Evaluating the effectiveness of a counterterrorism policy
...using the Israeli Stock Market. A new economics study shows that the Tel Aviv 25 rose (+0.6% on average) after the killing of an important militant. But when Israel attempted to assassinate a Palestinian political leader or low-ranking militant the market dropped (-1.1%) nearly the same as after a large terrorist attack (-1.2%).
read more | digg story
Ted Koppel in the NYT: "The US Is Already At War With Iran"
Ted Koppel begins his NYT op-ed, "The United States is already at war with Iran; but for the time being the battle is being fought through surrogates."
Koppel goes on to relay a conversation he had with a Jordanian intelligence officer, "Over the past couple of months alone, he told me, Hamas has received more than $300 million in cash, provided by Iran and funneled through Syria."
When [Sheik Nabil Qaouk, the commander of Hezbollah forces in the southern part of the country] talked about Israel and Hezbollah, his organization's ambitions were not framed in purely defensive terms. There is only harmony between Hezbollah's endgame and the more provocative statements made over the past year by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's president. Both foresee the elimination of the Jewish state.
Are the Israelis overreacting in Lebanon? Perhaps they simply perceive their enemies' intentions with greater clarity than most. It is not the Lebanese who make the Israelis nervous, nor even Hezbollah. It is the puppet-masters in Tehran capitalizing on every opportunity that democratic reform presents. In the Palestinian territories, in Lebanon, in Egypt, should President Hosni Mubarak be so incautious as to hold a free election, it is the Islamists who benefit the most.
But Washington's greatest gift to the Iranians lies next door in Iraq. By removing Saddam Hussein, the United States endowed the majority Shiites with real power, while simultaneously tearing down the wall that had kept Iran in check.
According to the Jordanian intelligence officer, Iran is reminding America's traditional allies in the region that the United States has a track record of leaving its friends in the lurch - in Vietnam in the '70s, in Lebanon in the '80s, in Somalia in the '90s.
In his analysis, the implication that this decade may witness a precipitous American withdrawal from Iraq has begun to produce an inclination in the region toward appeasing Iran.
It is in Iraq, he told me, "where the United States and the coalition forces must confront the Iranians." He added, "You must build up your forces in Iraq and you must announce your intention to stay."
Sitting in his Amman office, he appeared to be a man of few illusions; so he did not make the recommendation with any great hope that his advice would be followed. But neither did he leave any doubts as to which country would benefit if that advice happened to be ignored.
read the full Op-Ed here (IHT)
[via the Huffington Post]
Beirut destructionThe Best Nuclear Option
Imagine a nuclear industry that can power America for decades using its own radioactive garbage, burning up the parts of today's reactor wastes that are the hardest to dispose of. Add technology that takes nuclear chaff, uranium that was mined and processed but was mostly unusable, and converts it to still more fuel.
read more | digg story
Green Wonders of The World
Green building technology has reached a tipping point that makes it a more feasible -- and elegant -- choice for new construction. Here's a look at the best-looking green buildings around the world, with pictures.
read more | digg story
Thursday, July 20, 2006
Approved Items for the Bar Exam: 1 clear plastic storage bag...
New York test-takers are pretty lucky when it comes to the quiet snack. All it needs to be is quiet. Pennsylvania requires that snacks be small -- they give gum and mints as examples -- and unwrapped. It makes me feel sorry for all those folks in Harrisburg who, when hunger hits six hours into the multiple-choice section, have no recourse other than to reach into their pockets for a handful of warm Hershey's Kisses. Other states have fun rules too. Virginia requires test-takers to wear suits (or a tie and jacket) to the exam. And it encourages soft-soled footwear, like tennis shoes. Suits and sneakers: the classic grade-school prom costume. My first inclination was to think the soft-soled policy was for comfort. But this is Virginia, in July. If they wanted the test-takers to be comfortable, in the hundred-degree heat, the suit's a bigger problem than the tennis shoes.
The California Bar provides a list of twenty-three approved items, including "up to two pillows without cases," "silent analog watches, timers and clocks not measuring larger than 4x4 inches or smaller," and "ear plugs or plastic material normally associated with the sport of swimming." Huh? Is there a swimming section on the California bar exam? Maybe that's why so many people fail. Or maybe they fail because the questions are written by the same guy who wrote the "not measuring larger than 4x4 inches or smaller" clause. That leaves clocks measuring… exactly 4x4 inches? I guess so. It must stem from some episode in which a test taker tried to wheel in a "good luck" grandfather clock. Or something.
read more | digg story
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
CFR: Mideast Conflict Rages On
The violence continues in the Middle East. More than 200 Lebanese, nearly all civilians, have been killed (WashPost) in an Israeli offensive that followed Hezbollah's abduction of two Israeli soldiers last week. In response to Israeli strikes, Hezbollah has launched rockets ever deeper into Israeli territory, killing dozens. Many international observers criticize the Israeli offensive in Lebanon as a disproportionate response to the kidnapping. This CFR Backgrounder examines the doctrine of proportionality in relation to Israel. In a July 17 address to Parliament, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert vowed the Israeli offensive would continue until two kidnapped Israeli soldiers are returned, the Lebanese army is deployed along the Israeli border, and Hezbollah halts its rocket attacks on Israel.
For its part, Hezbollah is trying to shatter the regional image of Israel's military strength and change the balance of power in the region (CSMonitor). The group's leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, profiled here by the Washington Post, declared "open war" on Israel (al-Jazeera). Although members of Hezbollah's political wing serve in Lebanon's Parliament and its cabinet, the group's allegiances to Iran and Syria subvert the goals of Lebanon's central government (NYT). CFR President Richard Haass told CBS News that Iran and Syria are using Hezbollah as a vehicle to get at Israel and advance their interests in the region. The relationship between Tehran and Damascus, and the two countries' influence on the current conflict, is examined in this new Backgrounder.
This CSIS report by Anthony Cordesman says Syria and Iran both gain by this proxy war, which divides the United States and Europe, distracts international attention from Iran's nuclear program and Syria's continuing influence in Lebanon, and feeds Arab anger against the United States.
So far, Israel has not threatened to attack Syria directly (al-Jazeera). If it does, it faces the threat of retaliation from Iran, which many suspect has provided Hezbollah with the new, longer-range rockets the group is using to hit Israeli cities as far south of the border as Haifa (Haaretz).
Tehran has said it will back Syria if Israel attacks Damascus. The new unity between religious Tehran and secular Damascus surprises many. Some Sunni governments—those of Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia—are increasingly wary of the growing influence of Iran, and are blaming Hezbollah for its role in starting the conflict, a rare move (NYT). Middle East expert Robert Satloff writes in the Weekly Standard that the new cooperation between Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas is driven by political opportunism, not shared ideology.
Meanwhile, the Israeli campaign is wreaking havoc on Lebanon's infrastructure and economy, reversing the hard-won progress the country has made since its fifteen-year civil war ended in 1990. The Economist says Israel's actions risk destabilizing the entire region, and Beirut's Daily Star demands the United States step in to halt the "collective punishment" of the Israeli attacks. But some critics say the United States, divided from its allies and preoccupied with Iraq, has less influence than ever in the Middle East (CSMonitor).
[original article here]
from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), click on above links to read & learn more about any topic. The CFR has excellent daily analysis and briefings.
Monday, July 17, 2006
Top 10: Vehicles with the Highest Fuel Efficiency
1. Honda Insight - 66 mpg hwy - 60 mpg city
2. Toyota Prius Hybrid - 51 mpg hwy - 60 mpg city
3. Honda Civic Hybrid CVT PZEV - 51 mpg hwy - 49 mpg city
4. Volkswagen New Beetle GLS TDI - 46 mpg hwy - 38 mpg city
5. Volkswagen Golf GL TDI - 46 mpg hwy - 38 mpg city
6. Volkswagen Jetta GL 1.9 TDI - 46 mpg hwy - 38 mpg city
7. Toyota Echo - 42 mpg hwy - 35 mpg city
8. Toyota Corolla LE - 41 mpg hwy - 32 mpg city
9. Scion xA 4AT - 38 mpg hwy - 31 mpg city
10. Kia Rio Cinco 4AT - 38 mpg hwy - 29 mpg city
read more | digg story
Saturday, July 15, 2006
Secrets of the Tarahumara, "The Running People"
One of the most remote people on the planet, fewer than 40,000 Tarahumara remain. When they do emerge from NW Mexico they run and win 100-mile ultramarathons, wearing sandals and togas. What are the secrets of a people whose diet consists of beer and corn "pinole", with near zero incidence of disease?
Until that strange scene in 1993, no one had ever taken the Leadville Trail 100 ultramarathon lightly. Leadville forces racers to run and climb 100 high-altitude miles over the scrabbly trails and snowy peaks of the Colorado Rockies. You don't train for Leadville with intervals and striders; you train the way a prison gang handles a rock pile, by constantly banging out lots of slow, steady miles and building the kind of thin-air endurance that lets you grind along at 15 minutes a mile all day long and then continue into the night. The Leadville ultra, you could say, is closer to mountaineering than marathoning.
But there, next to the carefully pulse-monitored and Polar-Fleeced top seeds at the 1993 starting line, were a half-dozen middle-aged guys in togas, smoking butts and shooting the breeze, deciding whether they should wear some new Rockport cross-trainers they'd been given earlier or the sandals they'd made out of old tires scavenged from a nearby junkyard. Most opted for the sandals. They weren't stretching or warming up or showing the faintest sign that they were about to start one of the most grueling ultramarathons in the world.
read more | digg story
Lebanon calls for cease-fire under U.N.
BEIRUT, Lebanon - ...
Despite worldwide alarm, there was little indication either Western or Arab nations could muster a quick diplomatic solution. The United States and France prepared to evacuate their citizens, and Britain dispatched an aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean in apparent preparation for evacuations.
Choking back tears, [Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad] Saniora went on television to plead with the United Nations to broker a cease-fire for his "disaster-stricken nation."
The Western-backed prime minister, criticizing both Israel and Hezbollah, also pledged to reassert government authority over all Lebanese territory, suggesting his government might deploy the Lebanese army in the south, which Hezbollah effectively controls.
That would meet a repeated U.N. and U.S. demand. But any effort by Saniora's Sunni Muslim-led government to use force against the Shiite Muslim Hezbollah guerrillas could trigger another bloody civil war in Lebanon. Many fear the 70,000-strong army itself might break up along sectarian lines, as it did during the 1975-90 civil war. ...
read more | digg story
Monday, July 10, 2006
Why Mosquitoes Hate Humans...
"Some unfortunate people are irresistible to mosquitoes, while the scent of some lucky individuals drives the blood-suckers away. Now the smelly chemicals from the sweat of these lucky people have been identified by researchers, who are testing its effectiveness as a natural mosquito repellent.
Everybody produces a mixture of odorous chemicals in their sweat, some of which attract biting insects, such as lactic acid. But people who do not get bitten also produce smelly chemicals that appear to mask the scent of the attractive chemicals. "
read more | digg story
Ancestor of every living human may have lived only 2000 years ago
"That means everybody on Earth descends from somebody who was around as recently as the reign of Tutankhamen, maybe even during the Golden Age of ancient Greece. There's even a chance that our last shared ancestor lived at the time of Christ."
read more | digg story
Tuesday, July 4, 2006
Why the U.S. Needs More Nuclear Power
"The best thing we can do to decrease the Middle East's hold on us is to turn off the spigot ourselves. For economic, ecological, and geopolitical reasons, U.S. policymakers ought to promote electrification on the demand side, and nuclear fuel on the supply side, wherever they reasonably can."
read more | digg story
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